BTU, CLF, TIE

Well Traders, some new plays came to me today; BTU, CLF and TIE. I have been lying in wait for these to come back to their Ascending Channel supports before buying them, and today was the day. Hopefully, my patience will pay off as well as I think it can. Here are the charts:

BTU

CLF

TIE

You'll notice that all three of them are at the bottom of their channels setting up for a timely bounce up to the tops of their channels at which point I will either sell the stock, or sell a Covered Call.

A real benefit of the position of these buys is that I am using the lows as my support level, and placing my Stop-Loss prices 2% below them, so not much downside. The upside is that if these do run up in their channels as predicted, the risk/reward for these trades is really good.

By the way, I only keep a limited amount stocks in my watch lists and just keep looking at the same ones over and over again. You'll recognize patterns and become very well aquainted with the companies the longer you look at them. If you have enough from diversified sectors, then there will always be something in your pipeline that will be ready to trade. Let it come to you.

Happy Trading!

ANDE

Well Traders, an interesting thing happened to ANDE last week. I mentioned the "bounce" that was expected after it took me out at my stop-loss. Well, on Thursday, boy did it ever bounce. This was primarily due to an upgrade by Bank of America.

However, after an initial gap up of $2.15 at the open, the stock fell the rest of the day. This set up an interesting conundrum. Would the stock continue to rise, or try to fill the gap?

On Friday, we see that there was a little indecision, and ANDE actually tried to close the gap. Today, ANDE is up over $0.80 at the time of this writing. We'll see if Friday's action was the "gap close" attempt which is now over, and ANDE should run bullish from here.

Happy Trading!

Springboard?

Well Traders, as I mentioned in my earlier post, ANDE bit me in the behind. I am not that upset because I planned my trade, and traded my plan, and based upon the signals, I needed to get out when I did. That is just the way it goes sometimes. ANDE ended up skyrocketing late in the day which may indicate that today was the bottom, and the upturn truly begins tomorrow with another up day. Here is the daily intraday chart...look at that late-day movement!

Now, look at my revised ANDE chart below in which I eliminated the Ascending Channel, and instead reformed it to just be diagonal support and diagonal resistance. You'll notice that as soon as it hit that support line, the stock springboarded up the rest of the day. Kind of an amazing thing to see really.


So now what? Well, the fact of the matter is, the original play is still intact. In fact, if tomorrow is another up day on ANDE, I'll get in again and ride it up to the first target price indicated on the chart. I'll then tighten up my stop-loss to capture profits. If it races towards my second target price and my STO and MACD are indicating weakness, I may sell a Covered Call, or just close the position and take my profits...then wait for the fall and bounce and snatch it up again.

Happy Trading!

Market Is Out to Get Me!

Well Traders, sometimes I believe the market is out to get me. Today ANDE was down pretty good on light volume. This was the second day in a row in which the stock was down a sizeable amount on light volume. According to my trade plan, I was to get out if the stock reached $37, which is did around 10:30 AM. I called my broker and placed my sell order which was executed and swear to God, not 10 seconds after my shares sold, the stock soared $1.20 in 45 minutes! Just CRAZY! Here is the 3 minute Intra-day chart:That is just amazing! I could not have timed my exit any worse. When I see things like this it just makes me nuts! That being said, the stock did bounce off the support line in it Ascending Channel and if it goes up more tomorrow, I'll get back in since there is still $5-$6 left in a run-up. I do hate unnecessary losses, but I planned my trade, and traded my plan, so even though it is a loss, I did what I was supposed to do. Let's see if we can get in tomorrow (assuming it is up) and make back what I lost?

Happy Trading!

A "Fakey"?

I hate down days when I am Long. I hate them even more when the losses are "big" and the volume is small. Such was the case today as several of my positions were hit with nice-sized "losses" on light volume. I know the Fed announcement (yawn...they did nothing...again) kept most everyone on the sidelines, and when they got the news they expected, there was a little pop, until folks realized nothing really changed from before, and the market lost ground again. Anyway, my positions in ANDE, BHP, and CROX got beat up pretty good. My position in CLF got hammered, but may not be such a bad thing since I have a $45 Covered Call expiring this Friday. I would not mind having the stock finish below $45 and being able to maintain my position in it since it is heading toward the bottom of a nice Asecending Channel. I could wait for a bounce, ride it to the top of the Channel, and sell another Covered Call. We'll have to wait and see.

I am looking at TIE and BTU to come down to their support levels in their Ascending Channels, and then I'll snatch up some shares.

Happy Trading!

I'm Back...Did You Miss Me?!?!

Hey Traders...I have been gone from this blog for awhile, primarily concentrating on my other blog: iron-condor.blogspot.com. That discusses another method for trading, one you may find interesting, so check it out!

I recently made an excellent trade on KMX, here is the chart:

As you will see on the chart where I entered, and where I exited, it made for some very nice returns. I will wait for this to slide back in its Ascending Channel and pick up some more shares once it reaches support again, and take it for another ride. That is the beauty of a channeling stock like this. Buy it low, let it run, sell it high, rinse and repeat!

Today, I entered a new trade: ANDE

As you will see from the chart, the stock is bouncing off the bottom of a well-formed Ascending Channel, and the MACD and STO are perfectly positioned to indicate a bounce is imminent. Since the channel is over $6 tall, this could generate a nice return for me should it follow the channel like it has in the past. My stop-loss is 3% below the most recent bounce two days ago.

That is all I see today that may be worth trading, the key to trading I have found is PATIENCE! Remember, YOU are the HUNTER, and good hunters lie in wait for their prey...do the same!

By the way, I encourage any readers to submit their own ideas for trades through the comments section.

Happy Trading!

Sold CSH and AMT

Well Traders, normally you let your winners run, but this run up to the election had me concerned. If the election goes to the Dems, the market will probably take a good sized hit. So, with that in mind, I closed out of CSH and AMT for some nice profits...in only a few days.

I'll wait out today and see what tomorrow brings to the markets, then be ready to go with either stocks or Puts.

Happy Trading!

Out of CROX and BLUD

Well gang, I got out of CROX for a nice profit on Friday. It was precarious at times because after blowout, and I mean BLOW-OUT earnings, the stock was actually down after-hours on Thursday. That concerned me because I have seen stocks crush street estimates and have HUGE gap-ups on the news (see ERTS), but to see CROX beat the Street by so much and be down AH was cause for concern.

Once CROX rallied in the AM, I bailed. Let the hedge funds who are shorting naked fight it out. I made my money, I'm happy.

BLUD seems to have stalled, so I took my smaller profit and have begun to look elsewhere.

I am going to take a pause today and tomorrow until after the elections because then I will have a much clearer picture on what the market trend will be after the results. I believe if the GOP retains control (and I don't see that happening unless the Minnesota National Guard through John Kerry's blunder saves the election for them) will go up, whereas if the Dems take control of

Congress, the markets will head down because the Dems are noted for being unfriendly to business. They'll eliminate tax breaks, raise minimum wages, make health insurance a responsibility to small business. In short, the Dems will do things that will hurt the bottom line, and that is NOT good news for Wall Street.

I'll have some more trading ideas to share soon.

Happy Trading!

Patience is a virtue...

The first Rule I have when trading is "patience." It is imperative that you don't chase any plays, rather find some really good trending stocks, then lie and wait for the right time to pull the trigger. I have a stock today that may be worth lying in wait for: PCAR

Fundamentally, the stock is solid. It is trending up through a channel and it could find support right here and bounce, OR, continue down the channel to the bottom diagonal support and bounce there. We'll just have to wait and see what happens...but you may want to put this on your watch list.

I had a nice earnings EXPlosion on EXP...the stock gapped open on a better than expected earnings report and guidance, then fell with the market the rest of the day. you'll notice it came to rest right on the support line.

Remember to click on each image to enlarge it (you may have to click TWICE to get the clearest image...I don't know why but I noticed that on Firefox), then hit your "back" button to return to the blog. By the way, notice a difference in these charts from my previous ones? Well, these are the NEW charts available on INVESTools...I have access to the Beta version, but the new official toolbox should be launched very soon!

The rest of my plays I mentioned in previous posts took some hits today with the market, but mostly on light volume meaning it was a market hit, not necessarily a stock hit.

Tomorrow CROX posts earnings...stay tuned!

Happy Trading!

Some ideas...

Well, I entered into three new plays today based upon some Technical and Fundamental Analysis. Each of them are in nice uptrends and were close to the bottom supports of their channels.

To see a chart, click on it to enlarge, then use your "back" or "refresh" button on your browser to return to the blog.

CSH



INTU


SAY
Happy Trading!

Monday blues...

Well, nothing today jumped out at me as a potential play. The markets were mixed and for some reason, I did not see much mention of a revised GDP number reflecting a statistical anomoly from last Friday. My friends over at TraderTim.blogspot.com brought this to my attention (by the way, TraderTim's site is one of the BEST out there for Technical Anlaysis, and since he is a UberBear, it is nice to have someone who plays the "darkside" of the market).

With mid-term elections looming next week, the market may act a little crazy. In my opinion, if the Democrats take over both the House and Senate, I believe the markets will fall. Why? Well, the Dems would want to raise the minimum wage, cut some tax breaks, tax Big Oil uber-profits, and do some other anti-business measure that will harm the economy. Plus, having a Democratic Congress with a Republican President is like trying to mix oil and water...it doesn't work.

Should the economy slow and head into recession, a stock you may want to consider is CSH:



This stock has been on a tear lately and it will continue to fly into a recession because they are Pawn Shops. So when folks are struggling financially, this could be a place they turn to.

Take a bite in CROX

CROX
This stock has a very nice bounce on Thursday with the STO and MACD lined up nicely for a bullish run. Caveat: earnings are 11/6.

AMT
Another bullish stock on the move on a bounce on its 23.6% Fibonacci line. Not great fundamentally (3/1, 2/0), but the ACC is high at 74 meaning institutions are hot and heavy in this stock. Caveat: earnings 11/6

ANST

Another Bullish stock that has bounced. Fundamentally sound at 7/1, 2/0 (CNBS but 3.75 Financials), ACCis 63 which is good too. Caveat: earnings 11/13

More stuff later!

Happy Trading!

CRRazy earnings season

I have come to learn over my 15 months of trading that earnings are always a crapshoot. Many times I read "Blowout earnings" or "Record Earnings" only to see a stock plummet. Well, yesterday I suggested CRR as a potential play, but gave the caveat that earnings were today. Well, I hope you heeded my warning as the stock has dropped over $2.50 today. Just goes to show that buying into earnings is ALWAYS a "buyer beware" situation.

Another idea...BLUD (remember, click on the picture to enlarge it, then "back" on your browser to return to the blog)

This is a SWEET looking chart as far as I am concerned. As an INVESTools student, this baby has all the elements of a "buy" signal. Uptrending stock, breaking resistance on good volume, MACD bottomed out and heading bullish, and STO bottoming out and heading bullish. The fundamentals are solid too (6/2, 2/0).

I have no freaking clue where BLUD can go, but I will be playing trailing stops until it takes me out. Hopefully, it will be a GREAT ride to the top!


Happy Trading!

Some trading ideas...

Okay Traders, here are some trading ideas for you. Remember, you need to decide for yourselves if these fit your trading rules and profiles...buyer beware!

CRR

Stock is making a nice bounce off diagonal support. This higher low may indicate a trend reversal. Caveat: Earnings are 10/26.

LYO

Stock is making a nice bouce off diagonal support and has a nice uptrend going. Caveat: earnings are 10/26.

Remember, you can always click on a picture to enlarge it, then use your "back" button on your browser to retrun to the blog.

Happy Trading!

unEXPected Surprise

Today was a nice day in that Eagle Materials (EXP) which I bought yesterday jumped a whopping $2.59 on great volume. This could either be the start of a big retrace since the stock has been beaten up so much, or a short squeeze. No matter, i am gonna work this profit for as much as I can.

AKAM was another great bounce on a stock I bought yesterday. I sold a NOV $50 covered call for $2.30, so as long as this baby is between $50 and $52.30 by mid November, I'll be a happy camper.

I'll see if there are any more plays ripe for the picking and let y'all know.

By the way, if you click on the pictures, they'll open up much bigger (and easier to read), then just click on the "back" button of your browser to return to the blog.

Happy Trading!

Back Into the Fray

Well Traders, it has been a month since my last post, and I have been waiting on the sidelines due to the Bullish nature of the market, and with so many of the stocks I am interested in being overbought.

I did enter into a few stocks this week, ADBE, AKAM, BBBY, and EXP.

My first Iron Condor was not as successful as I had hoped, primarily because my initial trade was too close for such a strong uptrending market. I did roll out once but the $NDX kept chasing my tail. I learned a great deal from that first trade, primarily, to make much wider spreads (in the 250-300 point range on the $NDX), especially in a "hot" market. Sure, the returns won't be as grand, but they should be consistent, and without much need to ever roll out. I also moved my roll points out to 40 for greater than 15 days, and 25 for less than 15 days (from 35 and 20 respectfully). The most impirtant thing I learned was an amazing discovery I wanted to share.


I did a hypothetical analysis of a $100,000 account that played a very conservative Iron Condor every month. Essentially a 275 point spread with returns of about $3,500/month. The initial play was 10/10/10/10 contracts until the returns added $25,000 to the account. At that point I added 5 shares to the contracts for a 15/15/15/15 play (which is $5,250/month) to see what would happen. Well, if you keep adding 5 contracts for every $25,000 added to the account, and this is at 100% success (which is reasonable to me since the spreads are pretty wide), then in theory after only 3 years, 3 months, your account would have over $600,000 in the account and would be gernerating $35,0000/month on 100/100/100/100 contract plays. Now that is some serious income!

Here is the progression:

• 10 contracts = $3,500
  
• 15 contracts = $5,250
  
• 20 contracts = $7,000
  
• 25 contracts = $8,500
  
• 30 contracts = $10,500
  
• 35 contracts = $12,250
  
• 40 contracts = $14,000
  
• 45 contracts = $15,750
  
• 50 contracts = $17,500
  
• 55 contracts = $19,250
  
• 60 contracts = $21,000
  
• 65 contracts = $22,750
  
• 70 contracts = $24,500
  
• 75 contracts = $26,250
  
• 80 contracts = $28,000
  
• 85 contracts = $29,750
  
• 90 contracts = $31,500
  
• 95 contracts = $33,250
  
• 100 contracts = $35,000
  

By the way, the $3,500 initial amount was based on fixed prices, i.e. the middle prices of the options. It could be closer to $4,000 initially if the options could be played to earn that amount. I'll let you know next Friday when I enter into December's Iron Condor. That is another thing I learned, enter your IC the Friday before 6 weeks out and take advantage of the time value before the weekend.

Happy Trading!

Did you miss me?!?!

Okay, so I took a couple of days off to regroup after some setbacks. I have played my very first "Iron Condor" on the $NDX which I am excited about. When I master this technique, I will be able to generate steady income every month with limited risk. If you want to learn more about how to play this, you need to be an INVESTools student. My anticipated income off this trade is almost 5 figures, which when generated every month, will give me well over 40% return over the year. I'll keep you posted.

The Fed speaks today, and everyone expects them to stay status quo and do nothing. This would be quite Bullish and may give early kindling to a 4th quarter Bull rally, which is what I am waiting for...some solid direction in the market.

Meanwhile, oil and natural gas are getting hammered as are other commodities which may make for some very good buying opportunities. If the Fed does keep interest rates stable, even though Housing may have fallen off a cliff, it may also be a good time to get into those as well as Retail.

Cheaper Oil, No Interest Rate Hike = Weight Loss?!?!

So check this out, NTRI, which I made a lot of money on the upside a few months ago has been downtrending recently. The stock was falling away from it diagonal resistance and the MACD and STO looked perfect for a Put yesterday. then today, WHAMMO, a complete 180. The stock is up almost $4.20 today on no news, just speculation I guess that since oil is falling, and the Fed may pause again, that folks will spend money on weight loss products. Funny logic. I got out quick on this cause it smelled fishy and I didn't want to take a bath on this nonsense, so once it pierced the diagonal resistance I line, I said "Aloha."

What the Hell?!?!

Ever think the market is even more confused than you are? Well, check out these two headlines on Yahoo! finance. One says that the market "looked past an unexpected rise in retail sales" and the headline right below it says "Retail Sales Slow." So which is it dumbasses?

Meanwhile, the oil sector continues to get hammered because of what I perceive as an "International Lovefest" since Israel isn't blowing up Hezbollah to Kingdom Come, and Iran is supposedly "playing nice," and Nigeria only had 3 kidnappings this week instead of 4. Meanwhile, there are still hurricanes forming in the Atlantic; Iran, Venezuela, and Nigeria are still hotspots and unstable, and China and India are making cars that I assume the 2 BILLION people that live there (okay, maybe only 400,000,000 will actually drive them) will buy and fuel, the oil "finding" in the Gulf is still years away from being tapped into, and is in the same place that hurricanes love to roam. So what is it? Is the "terror premium" all of a sudden irrelevent because the World is fairly quiet? Look out if we get a very cold winter and a hurricane makes its way into the Gulf (remember, Hurricane season ends in NOV).

I will be very happy once tomorrow is over, the "Witch" will be dead and hopefully we can resume some normalcy.

Happy trading!

Triple Witching Week

Well Traders, it's "Triple Witching Week" which means the markets are even more irrational than usual. Usually, I sit on the sidelines this week because being that it is Options Week, as well as the end of Q3, there is so much happening with the Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds that I let those guys battle it out.

The Dow had a big run up today, but as I looked at the MACD, the peaks have been lower with each higher peak on the daily price charts. This is a called a "divergence" and usually symbolizes a "false rally." So, being that the Dow is getting very close to the all-time high, it could be a predictor of a fall-back...time will tell.

CVS got taken out yesterday when the stock had an ealy morning fall, but I still made a 5o% return on the option after moving the stop-loss up. I'll take 50% returns ALL DAY, EVERY DAY!

JCP has finally got some steam behind it and has had three consecutive up days with decent and increasing volume, so that bodes well for my Call play on the bounce of 9/1. I was concerned when the stock fell back, but it did not break my support line so I stayed the course. Today, I was rewarded with a nice move and a close above the 30 day MA, which is nice as that can act as support now. My 1st target price for the stock is $69.50, which is the neckline for an Ascending Triangle play. Should the stock break that resistance level, I see a $7-$8 move from there. Wouldn't THAT be cool?

Finally, for consideration look at LH. The stock is bouncing off the MA, and the MACD and STO are perfectly positioned for a nice upside move. 1st target for the stock price is $69.25 with a 2nd target of $70.25. If it breaks $70.25, I seesomewhere above $73. Notice the Bollinger Bands are getting close to a nice squeeze which may indicate a substantial breakout.

Happy Trading!

Back into the fray...

Well, last week ended a bit sour. Some of my positions were taken out for some losses based on support/resistance levels being broken. I have set my stop loss exits to be more "aggressive," i.e bailing out earlier when the trades go against me.

NEU is a good example. The stock had broken above a resistance neckline for a Head & Shoulders play that was projected to have a $25 upside. However, the very next day, the stock dropped over $3 at one point, dropping back below the neckline at which point I exited the trade with my preset stop-loss trigger. I always have TWO stop loss triggers set on each trade, a standard 30% loss exit, as well as a support/resistance level trigger that may or may not take me out before the 30% trigger. The 30% trigger is my Max Pain exit, so that is the most I expect to lose on a trade, and the support/resistance trigger may take me out before the 30% loss which is fine too.

I stepped back from trading on Friday since I was taking some hits and to stop from getting "emotional," but I expect to make some trades this week if any present themselves.

I have a very nice trade going with CVS, which I am up over 40% right now. I have moved my stop-loss up to capture 35% returns so I am a happy camper right now. I expect the stock to reach about $36.50-$37 within the next 10 days at which point, if the stock begins to retrace abck to its diagonal support, I'll get out and wait for the stock to retrace to support and get back in again.

Happy trading!