To see a chart, click on it to enlarge, then use your "back" or "refresh" button on your browser to return to the blog.
CSH
INTU
SAY
Happy Trading!
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Some ideas...
Well, I entered into three new plays today based upon some Technical and Fundamental Analysis. Each of them are in nice uptrends and were close to the bottom supports of their channels.
To see a chart, click on it to enlarge, then use your "back" or "refresh" button on your browser to return to the blog.
CSH
INTU
SAY
Happy Trading!
To see a chart, click on it to enlarge, then use your "back" or "refresh" button on your browser to return to the blog.
CSH
INTU
SAY
Happy Trading!
Monday, October 30, 2006
Monday blues...
Well, nothing today jumped out at me as a potential play. The markets were mixed and for some reason, I did not see much mention of a revised GDP number reflecting a statistical anomoly from last Friday. My friends over at TraderTim.blogspot.com brought this to my attention (by the way, TraderTim's site is one of the BEST out there for Technical Anlaysis, and since he is a UberBear, it is nice to have someone who plays the "darkside" of the market).
With mid-term elections looming next week, the market may act a little crazy. In my opinion, if the Democrats take over both the House and Senate, I believe the markets will fall. Why? Well, the Dems would want to raise the minimum wage, cut some tax breaks, tax Big Oil uber-profits, and do some other anti-business measure that will harm the economy. Plus, having a Democratic Congress with a Republican President is like trying to mix oil and water...it doesn't work.
Should the economy slow and head into recession, a stock you may want to consider is CSH:
This stock has been on a tear lately and it will continue to fly into a recession because they are Pawn Shops. So when folks are struggling financially, this could be a place they turn to.
With mid-term elections looming next week, the market may act a little crazy. In my opinion, if the Democrats take over both the House and Senate, I believe the markets will fall. Why? Well, the Dems would want to raise the minimum wage, cut some tax breaks, tax Big Oil uber-profits, and do some other anti-business measure that will harm the economy. Plus, having a Democratic Congress with a Republican President is like trying to mix oil and water...it doesn't work.
Should the economy slow and head into recession, a stock you may want to consider is CSH:
This stock has been on a tear lately and it will continue to fly into a recession because they are Pawn Shops. So when folks are struggling financially, this could be a place they turn to.
Friday, October 27, 2006
Take a bite in CROX
CROX 
This stock has a very nice bounce on Thursday with the STO and MACD lined up nicely for a bullish run. Caveat: earnings are 11/6.
AMT
Another bullish stock on the move on a bounce on its 23.6% Fibonacci line. Not great fundamentally (3/1, 2/0), but the ACC is high at 74 meaning institutions are hot and heavy in this stock. Caveat: earnings 11/6
ANST
Another Bullish stock that has bounced. Fundamentally sound at 7/1, 2/0 (CNBS but 3.75 Financials), ACCis 63 which is good too. Caveat: earnings 11/13
More stuff later!
Happy Trading!
This stock has a very nice bounce on Thursday with the STO and MACD lined up nicely for a bullish run. Caveat: earnings are 11/6.
AMT
Another bullish stock on the move on a bounce on its 23.6% Fibonacci line. Not great fundamentally (3/1, 2/0), but the ACC is high at 74 meaning institutions are hot and heavy in this stock. Caveat: earnings 11/6
ANST
Another Bullish stock that has bounced. Fundamentally sound at 7/1, 2/0 (CNBS but 3.75 Financials), ACCis 63 which is good too. Caveat: earnings 11/13
More stuff later!
Happy Trading!
Thursday, October 26, 2006
CRRazy earnings season
I have come to learn over my 15 months of trading that earnings are always a crapshoot. Many times I read "Blowout earnings" or "Record Earnings" only to see a stock plummet. Well, yesterday I suggested CRR as a potential play, but gave the caveat that earnings were today. Well, I hope you heeded my warning as the stock has dropped over $2.50 today. Just goes to show that buying into earnings is ALWAYS a "buyer beware" situation.
Another idea...BLUD (remember, click on the picture to enlarge it, then "back" on your browser to return to the blog)
This is a SWEET looking chart as far as I am concerned. As an INVESTools student, this baby has all the elements of a "buy" signal. Uptrending stock, breaking resistance on good volume, MACD bottomed out and heading bullish, and STO bottoming out and heading bullish. The fundamentals are solid too (6/2, 2/0).
I have no freaking clue where BLUD can go, but I will be playing trailing stops until it takes me out. Hopefully, it will be a GREAT ride to the top!
Happy Trading!
Another idea...BLUD (remember, click on the picture to enlarge it, then "back" on your browser to return to the blog)
This is a SWEET looking chart as far as I am concerned. As an INVESTools student, this baby has all the elements of a "buy" signal. Uptrending stock, breaking resistance on good volume, MACD bottomed out and heading bullish, and STO bottoming out and heading bullish. The fundamentals are solid too (6/2, 2/0).
I have no freaking clue where BLUD can go, but I will be playing trailing stops until it takes me out. Hopefully, it will be a GREAT ride to the top!
Happy Trading!
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
Some trading ideas...
Okay Traders, here are some trading ideas for you. Remember, you need to decide for yourselves if these fit your trading rules and profiles...buyer beware!
CRR
Remember, you can always click on a picture to enlarge it, then use your "back" button on your browser to retrun to the blog.
Happy Trading!
CRR
Stock is making a nice bounce off diagonal support. This higher low may indicate a trend reversal. Caveat: Earnings are 10/26.
LYO
Stock is making a nice bouce off diagonal support and has a nice uptrend going. Caveat: earnings are 10/26.
Remember, you can always click on a picture to enlarge it, then use your "back" button on your browser to retrun to the blog.
Happy Trading!
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
unEXPected Surprise
Today was a nice day in that Eagle Materials (EXP) which I bought yesterday jumped a whopping $2.59 on great volume. This could either be the start of a big retrace since the stock has been beaten up so much, or a short squeeze. No matter, i am gonna work this profit for as much as I can.
AKAM was another great bounce on a stock I bought yesterday. I sold a NOV $50 covered call for $2.30, so as long as this baby is between $50 and $52.30 by mid November, I'll be a happy camper.
I'll see if there are any more plays ripe for the picking and let y'all know.
By the way, if you click on the pictures, they'll open up much bigger (and easier to read), then just click on the "back" button of your browser to return to the blog.
Happy Trading!
Back Into the Fray
Well Traders, it has been a month since my last post, and I have been waiting on the sidelines due to the Bullish nature of the market, and with so many of the stocks I am interested in being overbought.
I did enter into a few stocks this week, ADBE, AKAM, BBBY, and EXP.
My first Iron Condor was not as successful as I had hoped, primarily because my initial trade was too close for such a strong uptrending market. I did roll out once but the $NDX kept chasing my tail. I learned a great deal from that first trade, primarily, to make much wider spreads (in the 250-300 point range on the $NDX), especially in a "hot" market. Sure, the returns won't be as grand, but they should be consistent, and without much need to ever roll out. I also moved my roll points out to 40 for greater than 15 days, and 25 for less than 15 days (from 35 and 20 respectfully). The most impirtant thing I learned was an amazing discovery I wanted to share.
I did a hypothetical analysis of a $100,000 account that played a very conservative Iron Condor every month. Essentially a 275 point spread with returns of about $3,500/month. The initial play was 10/10/10/10 contracts until the returns added $25,000 to the account. At that point I added 5 shares to the contracts for a 15/15/15/15 play (which is $5,250/month) to see what would happen. Well, if you keep adding 5 contracts for every $25,000 added to the account, and this is at 100% success (which is reasonable to me since the spreads are pretty wide), then in theory after only 3 years, 3 months, your account would have over $600,000 in the account and would be gernerating $35,0000/month on 100/100/100/100 contract plays. Now that is some serious income!
Here is the progression:
By the way, the $3,500 initial amount was based on fixed prices, i.e. the middle prices of the options. It could be closer to $4,000 initially if the options could be played to earn that amount. I'll let you know next Friday when I enter into December's Iron Condor. That is another thing I learned, enter your IC the Friday before 6 weeks out and take advantage of the time value before the weekend.
Happy Trading!
I did enter into a few stocks this week, ADBE, AKAM, BBBY, and EXP.
My first Iron Condor was not as successful as I had hoped, primarily because my initial trade was too close for such a strong uptrending market. I did roll out once but the $NDX kept chasing my tail. I learned a great deal from that first trade, primarily, to make much wider spreads (in the 250-300 point range on the $NDX), especially in a "hot" market. Sure, the returns won't be as grand, but they should be consistent, and without much need to ever roll out. I also moved my roll points out to 40 for greater than 15 days, and 25 for less than 15 days (from 35 and 20 respectfully). The most impirtant thing I learned was an amazing discovery I wanted to share.
I did a hypothetical analysis of a $100,000 account that played a very conservative Iron Condor every month. Essentially a 275 point spread with returns of about $3,500/month. The initial play was 10/10/10/10 contracts until the returns added $25,000 to the account. At that point I added 5 shares to the contracts for a 15/15/15/15 play (which is $5,250/month) to see what would happen. Well, if you keep adding 5 contracts for every $25,000 added to the account, and this is at 100% success (which is reasonable to me since the spreads are pretty wide), then in theory after only 3 years, 3 months, your account would have over $600,000 in the account and would be gernerating $35,0000/month on 100/100/100/100 contract plays. Now that is some serious income!
Here is the progression:
- 10 contracts = $3,500
- 15 contracts = $5,250
- 20 contracts = $7,000
- 25 contracts = $8,500
- 30 contracts = $10,500
- 35 contracts = $12,250
- 40 contracts = $14,000
- 45 contracts = $15,750
- 50 contracts = $17,500
- 55 contracts = $19,250
- 60 contracts = $21,000
- 65 contracts = $22,750
- 70 contracts = $24,500
- 75 contracts = $26,250
- 80 contracts = $28,000
- 85 contracts = $29,750
- 90 contracts = $31,500
- 95 contracts = $33,250
- 100 contracts = $35,000
By the way, the $3,500 initial amount was based on fixed prices, i.e. the middle prices of the options. It could be closer to $4,000 initially if the options could be played to earn that amount. I'll let you know next Friday when I enter into December's Iron Condor. That is another thing I learned, enter your IC the Friday before 6 weeks out and take advantage of the time value before the weekend.
Happy Trading!
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