Wednesday, January 10, 2007

CROX, CLF and CCJ

Well Traders, I am back after a few days with some updates on my portfolio positions. But, before I delve into those, I have a great reading recommendation. I have just finished the book, "Come into my Trading Room" by Dr. Alexander Elder. Let me tell you, if you are new to trading, this is a MUST READ! Great advice on Options, Money Management (an absolute MUST to know!), Stop-Loss placement, etc.
Now, onto my trades.

CROX (3 Month Chart)
Here is a look at the 3-Month chart. The past two days, the stock has broken out from a consolidation, or Bollinger Band squeeze, to have a solid gain in the price. Today's action was fueled by the announcement of licensing agreements with the NFL and NHL which will boost the company's sales substantially. Crocs really has touched the surface in my opinion. They still have the NCAA, NBA, MLB, etc. Who knows what other creative ideas they can come up with for these shoes? Anyway, as I have marked on the graph I have two profit targets. Once I reach the first one, I will tighten up my Stop-Loss to capture some profits. If it breaks the first price target, then I'll shoot for the second one. Should it reach that point, that is where things may get VERY INTERESTING! Here's why:

CROX (9-Month Chart)
This is showing what may be a "Cup and Handle" formation. You'll notice the channel in which I define this pattern. The "Cup" is the first peak that curves down to the bottom of the channel, then rises to the second peak. the "Handle" is still forming, but it is the smaller "Cup" to the right of the second peak. In order to complete this pattern, CROX must hit the second price target. If it passes the second price target, the theory of this pattern is that it will rise the same depth of the "Cup," or in this case $19! That would make for a VERY nice trade! The time frame for that would be about 6-7 months, but hey, for $19, I'll wait 6-7 months for that gain. Of course, it is just a theory, but it will be interesting to watch as it develops. Stay tuned for that!

CCJ
This is somewhat an aggressive trade with limited downside. I expect the stock to bounce here and continue up the channel to its resistance level, at which point I will either sell the stock, or write a Covered Call and take in some income. The MACD and STO indicate that the upswing may be imminent, so I thought I would take the risk by entering here. Because a bottom/support was created yesterday, I have put my Stop-Loss 2% below the low of the day. I am only risking 1% of my portfolio value, so it isn't a big risk especially since the reward is about $7.

CLFAgain, another "bounce" play (my favorite). I am looking for the stock to continue up in its channel to resistance where I will either sell the stock, or a Covered Call and take the income. CLF has been a really good play for me in the past, I hope it continues. Again, I am only risking 1% of my portfolio value with this trade and I have about a $6 upside, so we'll see what happens.

Happy Trading!

No comments: