Well Traders, I have just finished up three GREAT days in Salt Lake City at the INVESTools Investor Education Center. I was attending the 3 Day Live Options classes and boy, what an eye-opener!
I have to say "Thank You" to my three instructors, Scott T., Sam S., and Tyler T. who were awesome in presenting some pretty heavy material. They were thorough, energetic AND entertaining! Hey guys, what's my DELTA on blowing out this year's numbers?
Anyway, my Dad and I are heading home tomorrow, so next week, I'll get back Into-The-Fray and start making some money.
To my classmates, good luck to you all and check back often!
Happy Trading!
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Thursday, January 25, 2007
Ring the Register on CHL!!
Ka-Ching! Well, Traders, I pulled the plug on CHL this morning at $49.25. To be frank, I got lucky. I felt that a pullback was near, and today's premarket confirmed my suspicion as the stock was down $2.15. It ended up rallying a little bit before a HUGE selloff probably spurred on by profit-taking. Check out the volume!You will also note the prominent "Evening Star" candle formation, which I have highlighted in yellow. this signifies a short-term Bearish Reversal, which is confirmed by the MACD and STO both falling.
Anyway, let's keep this little baby in our back pocket ready to buy again once it bounces. At this point, we may see it bounce at the $45 level, which was the top of the Ascending Triangle formation. Let's let the MACD and STO come back to us, be patient, and strike once the stock comes back to us.
Happy Trading!
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Go CHL, Go CHL, Go CHL!!!
Wunderbahr! This stock is just FLYING! I am near the Pig point (Pigs get Slaughtered!) of this trade and I am thinking of getting out soon. I have tightened up my stop loss to preserve my profits but today's candle with the flat top AGAIN indicates there is more upside to this. Anything over $51.00 at this point is just gravy. I would LOVE to see another nice opening tomorrow, take my profits and end my month on a VERY good note!The MACD and STO are just about to show a posible pullback, so I hope to get out before that happens.
Happy Trading
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
WOW! Possible HOME RUN??
WOW! Well Traders, I may have hit a home run with CHL. Today was ANOTHER huge day, the stock was up $2.37 to close at $49.47. Even more impressive was that the stock closed at the high of the day indicating there may be even MORE upside to this! Take a look at the volume the last two days...impressive.
The MACD and STO are getting pretty high, and a pullback may be approaching, but I will be looking to get out if CHL breaks $51, which it may tomorrow. Ultimately, if it hits $53, that would be ideal, but I can't be a Pig about this trade either!
Other than that , I only have VLO out there. I am waiting until earnings have passed many of the stocks i am looking at before I get back in.
Happy Trading!
Monday, January 22, 2007
CHL Lift Off!!
Well Traders, my CHL trade is moving along very nicely. Today the stock was boosted by news it was buying Paktel, Pakistan's largest cell company. The stock moved up almost $2 at one point, but settled at the end pf the day for a nice $1.73 gain on very big volume.
I picked this stock a while back because I liked the bounce, but I was also looking for a possible Ascending Triangle formation breakout, which happened today. This should bode very well for my trade as I now anticipate another $4 move within the next few weeks to bring the stock to about $51 with my target at perhaps $53. Here is the 6 month chart showing the AT formation:
The AT formation is outlined in RED, the price movement is traced in YELLOW, and the anticipated move is created in BLUE.
You'll see that $45 was resistance before, but now that the stock broke through that on big volume, we can expect move move to the upside. Here is the 3 month chart:
Once the stock hits my price target, I may sell a Covered Call or just sell the stock and get out. Based on the movement of the stock, and the future prospects of a cellphone company in China, the former may be a better long-term play.
I also must be mindful of the MACD and STO positions which may be nearing some weakness. Now I have $45 as support, I can use that as my stop-loss (to preserve profits) and as a springboard to the next upside bounce should the stock pull back. We'll have to wait and see...I don't want to fall for a "fakey" and get taken out too early either.
Finally, there are a number of stocks I am watching that I am holding off of for now since their earnings are coming up this week or next. Not a good time to play them into earnings...too much of a crapshoot!
Happy Trading!
I picked this stock a while back because I liked the bounce, but I was also looking for a possible Ascending Triangle formation breakout, which happened today. This should bode very well for my trade as I now anticipate another $4 move within the next few weeks to bring the stock to about $51 with my target at perhaps $53. Here is the 6 month chart showing the AT formation:
The AT formation is outlined in RED, the price movement is traced in YELLOW, and the anticipated move is created in BLUE.You'll see that $45 was resistance before, but now that the stock broke through that on big volume, we can expect move move to the upside. Here is the 3 month chart:
Once the stock hits my price target, I may sell a Covered Call or just sell the stock and get out. Based on the movement of the stock, and the future prospects of a cellphone company in China, the former may be a better long-term play.I also must be mindful of the MACD and STO positions which may be nearing some weakness. Now I have $45 as support, I can use that as my stop-loss (to preserve profits) and as a springboard to the next upside bounce should the stock pull back. We'll have to wait and see...I don't want to fall for a "fakey" and get taken out too early either.
Finally, there are a number of stocks I am watching that I am holding off of for now since their earnings are coming up this week or next. Not a good time to play them into earnings...too much of a crapshoot!
Happy Trading!
Friday, January 19, 2007
Checking In on CHL
Well Traders, just wanted to check in on CHL, a trade I am currently in.The stock has made a nice run up and today, broke through the $45 resistance to finish at $45.37 with a smooth-top candlestick. The smooth top indicates that the stock finished at the high of the day, meaning there is probably more upside to this stock.
I do see the STO entering "overbought" territory, and MACD is in the black, meaning at some point soon, I can expect the stock to show some weakness and begin to fall. I'll just have to wait and see how that pans out.
Have a great weekend!
Happy Trading!
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Bye Bye CROX, Hello CHL
Well traders, I pulled the plug on CROX today for a nice 8% profit in about 3 weeks. The stock had a really nice run up to resistance today, then the bottom fell out, over a $2 reversal. That, as well as the MACD and STO rolling over indicated to me that it was probably time to get out...for now. Here is the chart:
CROX
As I mentioned yesterday, i was really hoping the Cup and Handle pattern would complete, and it may still, but I had some nice profits on the table and I didn't want to see them vanish due to the shorts and other profit takers, so I got out. I expect the stock to continue to fall to support at which time, I will get back in and ride up the next Bull run. You can see the STO and MACD were giving me weakness signals.
CHL is something I have been watching for some time and it finally had a decent pullback with a bounce, which is why I got in today. Here is the chart:
CHL
You'll see the nice signal the STO gives. This hit support yesterday and bounced today. This play has two distinct possibilities for profits. The first, is to hit resistance at $45 and call it a day. Even better though, this is actually forming an Ascending Triangle which by my calculations, is good for a $8-$9 run if it breaks out above the $45 resistance. So, I am playing this as a quick pop to $45 with the hopes for more. My stop-loss is 2% below yesterday's low and I am only risking 1% of my total portfolio, so the risk/reward ratio is decent to excellent should I get the second target. If I see weakness at resistance and it begins to fall, I'll sell off, wait for the next bounce and try for the breakout again.
Happy Trading!
CROX
As I mentioned yesterday, i was really hoping the Cup and Handle pattern would complete, and it may still, but I had some nice profits on the table and I didn't want to see them vanish due to the shorts and other profit takers, so I got out. I expect the stock to continue to fall to support at which time, I will get back in and ride up the next Bull run. You can see the STO and MACD were giving me weakness signals.CHL is something I have been watching for some time and it finally had a decent pullback with a bounce, which is why I got in today. Here is the chart:
CHL
You'll see the nice signal the STO gives. This hit support yesterday and bounced today. This play has two distinct possibilities for profits. The first, is to hit resistance at $45 and call it a day. Even better though, this is actually forming an Ascending Triangle which by my calculations, is good for a $8-$9 run if it breaks out above the $45 resistance. So, I am playing this as a quick pop to $45 with the hopes for more. My stop-loss is 2% below yesterday's low and I am only risking 1% of my total portfolio, so the risk/reward ratio is decent to excellent should I get the second target. If I see weakness at resistance and it begins to fall, I'll sell off, wait for the next bounce and try for the breakout again.Happy Trading!
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
CROX, CLF and CCJ
Well Traders, I am back after a few days with some updates on my portfolio positions. But, before I delve into those, I have a great reading recommendation. I have just finished the book, "Come into my Trading Room" by Dr. Alexander Elder. Let me tell you, if you are new to trading, this is a MUST READ! Great advice on Options, Money Management (an absolute MUST to know!), Stop-Loss placement, etc.
Now, onto my trades.
CROX (3 Month Chart)
Here is a look at the 3-Month chart. The past two days, the stock has broken out from a consolidation, or Bollinger Band squeeze, to have a solid gain in the price. Today's action was fueled by the announcement of licensing agreements with the NFL and NHL which will boost the company's sales substantially. Crocs really has touched the surface in my opinion. They still have the NCAA, NBA, MLB, etc. Who knows what other creative ideas they can come up with for these shoes? Anyway, as I have marked on the graph I have two profit targets. Once I reach the first one, I will tighten up my Stop-Loss to capture some profits. If it breaks the first price target, then I'll shoot for the second one. Should it reach that point, that is where things may get VERY INTERESTING! Here's why:
CROX (9-Month Chart)
This is showing what may be a "Cup and Handle" formation. You'll notice the channel in which I define this pattern. The "Cup" is the first peak that curves down to the bottom of the channel, then rises to the second peak. the "Handle" is still forming, but it is the smaller "Cup" to the right of the second peak. In order to complete this pattern, CROX must hit the second price target. If it passes the second price target, the theory of this pattern is that it will rise the same depth of the "Cup," or in this case $19! That would make for a VERY nice trade! The time frame for that would be about 6-7 months, but hey, for $19, I'll wait 6-7 months for that gain. Of course, it is just a theory, but it will be interesting to watch as it develops. Stay tuned for that!
CCJ
This is somewhat an aggressive trade with limited downside. I expect the stock to bounce here and continue up the channel to its resistance level, at which point I will either sell the stock, or write a Covered Call and take in some income. The MACD and STO indicate that the upswing may be imminent, so I thought I would take the risk by entering here. Because a bottom/support was created yesterday, I have put my Stop-Loss 2% below the low of the day. I am only risking 1% of my portfolio value, so it isn't a big risk especially since the reward is about $7.
CLF
Again, another "bounce" play (my favorite). I am looking for the stock to continue up in its channel to resistance where I will either sell the stock, or a Covered Call and take the income. CLF has been a really good play for me in the past, I hope it continues. Again, I am only risking 1% of my portfolio value with this trade and I have about a $6 upside, so we'll see what happens.
Happy Trading!
Now, onto my trades.
CROX (3 Month Chart)
Here is a look at the 3-Month chart. The past two days, the stock has broken out from a consolidation, or Bollinger Band squeeze, to have a solid gain in the price. Today's action was fueled by the announcement of licensing agreements with the NFL and NHL which will boost the company's sales substantially. Crocs really has touched the surface in my opinion. They still have the NCAA, NBA, MLB, etc. Who knows what other creative ideas they can come up with for these shoes? Anyway, as I have marked on the graph I have two profit targets. Once I reach the first one, I will tighten up my Stop-Loss to capture some profits. If it breaks the first price target, then I'll shoot for the second one. Should it reach that point, that is where things may get VERY INTERESTING! Here's why:CROX (9-Month Chart)
This is showing what may be a "Cup and Handle" formation. You'll notice the channel in which I define this pattern. The "Cup" is the first peak that curves down to the bottom of the channel, then rises to the second peak. the "Handle" is still forming, but it is the smaller "Cup" to the right of the second peak. In order to complete this pattern, CROX must hit the second price target. If it passes the second price target, the theory of this pattern is that it will rise the same depth of the "Cup," or in this case $19! That would make for a VERY nice trade! The time frame for that would be about 6-7 months, but hey, for $19, I'll wait 6-7 months for that gain. Of course, it is just a theory, but it will be interesting to watch as it develops. Stay tuned for that!CCJ
This is somewhat an aggressive trade with limited downside. I expect the stock to bounce here and continue up the channel to its resistance level, at which point I will either sell the stock, or write a Covered Call and take in some income. The MACD and STO indicate that the upswing may be imminent, so I thought I would take the risk by entering here. Because a bottom/support was created yesterday, I have put my Stop-Loss 2% below the low of the day. I am only risking 1% of my portfolio value, so it isn't a big risk especially since the reward is about $7.CLF
Again, another "bounce" play (my favorite). I am looking for the stock to continue up in its channel to resistance where I will either sell the stock, or a Covered Call and take the income. CLF has been a really good play for me in the past, I hope it continues. Again, I am only risking 1% of my portfolio value with this trade and I have about a $6 upside, so we'll see what happens.Happy Trading!
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
What a Wacky Day!
Well Traders, we're back for a new year of trading, I hope you had a great holiday vacation! Mine was capped off with a tremendous victory by my Alma Mater, USC, in the Rose Bowl against Michigan. Fight On Trojans!
In case you missed it, today was like a football game, a tale of two halves. In the morning, the Dow and NASDAQ screamed upward with the Dow up over 100 points and reaching all-time Intraday highs. The NASDAQ was up over 30 points as well.
Then Half-Time came at about 12:00pm, and it was all downhill from there.
The Dow lost all its gains and was down as low as -30 points and the NASDAQ was at -$25 points.
Oil was down BIG today, almost $3.00 at one point. Commodities like coal and metals were also beat up really good. At the end of the day though, the Dow finished +10.89 and the NASDAQ finished +7.15.
I am only in two positions right now VLO and CROX, having closed all of my plays except these two at the holidays. I wanted to wait and see how we started off the year and see what transpired. Many of the stocks I was waiting on have broken down from their trends, making them somewhat invalid at this point. Just makes for a longer waiting game I guess. That being said, many of ther energy/oil/metal stocks I have been waiting on have just become cheaper than I expected. I am not going to chase them as they will have to re-establish their trends for me to get in, but the prospect of some good companies on the cheap is enticing for the future.
If I come across any decent patterns and entries, I'll let you know. Until that time though, I am on the sidelines (which is a legitiamate position).
Happy Trading!
In case you missed it, today was like a football game, a tale of two halves. In the morning, the Dow and NASDAQ screamed upward with the Dow up over 100 points and reaching all-time Intraday highs. The NASDAQ was up over 30 points as well.
Then Half-Time came at about 12:00pm, and it was all downhill from there.
The Dow lost all its gains and was down as low as -30 points and the NASDAQ was at -$25 points.
Oil was down BIG today, almost $3.00 at one point. Commodities like coal and metals were also beat up really good. At the end of the day though, the Dow finished +10.89 and the NASDAQ finished +7.15.
I am only in two positions right now VLO and CROX, having closed all of my plays except these two at the holidays. I wanted to wait and see how we started off the year and see what transpired. Many of the stocks I was waiting on have broken down from their trends, making them somewhat invalid at this point. Just makes for a longer waiting game I guess. That being said, many of ther energy/oil/metal stocks I have been waiting on have just become cheaper than I expected. I am not going to chase them as they will have to re-establish their trends for me to get in, but the prospect of some good companies on the cheap is enticing for the future.
If I come across any decent patterns and entries, I'll let you know. Until that time though, I am on the sidelines (which is a legitiamate position).
Happy Trading!
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